Emmanuel Todd gave an interview in Le Figaro newspaper on January 1, 2023. The article is paywalled but several English posts that interpret its content are available. In the article Emmanuel Todd talks about his latest book entitled World War III Has Already Begun. The book was published in Japan in June 2022, and sold ~100,000 copies. As of this date there is no translations other than Japanese.
A side note: I was unable to register to read the Le Figaro article. The site would not accept my US phone number. I rely on varied articles for the article’s content. I also rely on Emmanuel Todd’s comments on a Gavroche video, dated December 9th 2022, and on Elucid video posted on February 3rd 2023.
Emmanuel Todd is a French intellectual and academic. In 1976 he wrote a book entitled The Final Fall: An Essay on The Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere, where he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. And in 1979 he wrote After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order, in which he outlines a waning U.S. exceptionalism.
As the title of his latest book implies, Emmanuel Todd predicts that the current military operation in Ukraine will turn into a world war involving NATO, against Russia potentially aligned with China and Iran. He explains the war is the result of an identity crisis in the anglo-sphere (English speaking countries) originating in the USA.
Among Todd’s more interesting statement is of a political realignment of NATO in terms of a USA+UK/Poland/Kiev axis overshadowing two major political powers of the European Union and NATO; Germany and France.
Todd also states how the collective West was surprised by the resilience of the Russian economy in response to the massive sanctions imposed on the country. And how these sanctions have backfired and damaged the European economy and its unity. It also put an economic and debt burden on the US that could potentially pose a challenge to its global hegemony. And the sanctions instead of producing a regime change increased Putin’s popularity among Russian voters.
The war has emphasized antagonistic world views: On moral issues and on global political order. The conflict shows how the collective West is tinkering with untested economic global policies and are entangled with nebulous moral questions about cultural and sexual identity, represented by Woke culture.
Todd explains that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has repositioned itself as an anti-colonialist and as a moral conservative country with Christian Orthodox traditional family values, countering the woke culture of the West, particularly since Russia’s LGBT legislation. This moral conservatism in effect reflects moral values of ~75% of the planet. (Not including a large portion of the conservative population living in the collective West).
The economic sanctions revealed a resilient Russian economy involving the State and the private military industries, exemplified by a cohesive and rapid production of weapons and ammunition for the war in Ukraine.
He explains that when Vladimir Putin took power, Russia was a failed state living under dire economic conditions. His leadership oversaw gradual economic growth, political stability and he restored national pride. He promoted the sovereignty of the State and reinstituted the historic role of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Emmanuel Todd is also a demographer. He outlines some interesting statistics like; Russian universities producing ~25% of engineers compared the ~7% in the US, the difference is made up by foreign students.
Under his leadership Putin lowered infant mortality to 4.5 deaths per 1,000, compared ~28/1,000 in 1974. While the US’ stands at 5.4/1,000, and is among the highest in the industrial world, even though the US government spends ~18% of its GDP on medical and pharmaceutical industries, compared to ~9 to 11% of GDP spent on health care by European countries.
Among the more startling comment he makes is that neither Russia or NATO will be able to retreat from the conflict and will result in the collapse of either NATO/Ukraine or Russia.
In a video Todd explains that corporate media is at the origin of the mythology of Russian Imperialism and of Ukraine’s political purity and is responsible for a collective russophobia. He explains if a single European leader stands up against the current conflict, the whole narrative would crumble.
*The Moby Dick metaphor was originally used by Alexander Mercouris of The Duran